Reanalysis-Based Attribution and Storylines for Extremes (ReBASE)

ReBASE is a new reanalysis-based approach which will allow anyone to answer questions about the changing severity of observed extreme weather events in their own chosen region.

We are producing reconstructions and counterfactuals for all extreme events globally in particular time periods. Importantly, the counterfactuals will be of the ‘same’ weather events occurring in a different climate.

For historical events, warmer counterfactuals will answer questions like “if that event reoccurred now or in the future, how extreme would it be?”. For modern events, cooler counterfactuals will enable answers to questions like “how much more damaging was that event than if it had occurred without climate change”. Future counterfactuals will explore how all these events would be different in a warmer future.

Time periods being considered

We are producing a global reanalysis for the modern era (2015-2024), along with both cooler and warmer counter-factual reconstructions with the same weather patterns.

We are also producing improved reconstructions for historical periods containing notable extreme events which will be repeated in a modern and future climate.

1903 - proof-of-concept and example data viewer

1909-1911

1975-1976

Suggestions for other periods welcome.

People involved

Leads: Ed Hawkins (Reading) and Andrew Schurer (Edinburgh)

Postdocs: Rhidian Thomas (Reading) and Vikki Thompson (Edinburgh)

Investigators: Ted Shepherd (Reading) and Gabi Hegerl (Edinburgh)